Backers
“You unlock value by de-conglomerating... there's just way less room for people to hide and I think that they could all be leaner more efficient operations.”
A potential DOJ-mandated breakup would eliminate the conglomerate discount and unlock massive shareholder value by allowing fast-growing, high-margin units like YouTube and Waymo to be properly valued on their own. Additionally, forcing a split would strip out bureaucratic bloat and result in leaner, more efficient standalone companies.
“they're still really smart and good at making products and they have nine billion user a day products I bet it's going to be okay.”
Recent public relations missteps and market disgust regarding its Gemini image generator have created negative sentiment, but the core business is highly resilient. They retain elite product development capabilities and a massive structural moat with nine billion daily user interactions, giving them plenty of runway to correct near-term AI mistakes.
“The global critical mass that exists today for... YouTube is pretty tough to challenge.”
YouTube has achieved an enormous level of global critical mass and scale. This establishes a powerful competitive moat that makes it extremely difficult for any new challenger to disrupt its market dominance.
“I see a lot of upside with their AI pushed with Gemini and now with the quantum Computing”
Google has achieved a major breakthrough in drastically reducing quantum error rates via their new Willow chip, making the technology much more viable. Combined with the AI momentum from Gemini, the company has tremendous upside potential and will likely dominate as a cloud facilitator for quantum models.
“Google had $24 billion of profit off $85 billion of Revenue... these numbers are still insane in terms of how profitable these companies are”
Google's underlying business is incredibly strong and highly profitable, generating $24 billion in profit off $85 billion in revenue. Additionally, their cloud division is hitting record milestones, recently surpassing its first $10 billion quarter.
“I was pretty bearish Google like two years ago, but I'm like super bullish Google. They're waking up on every front.”
Google is successfully waking up across all fronts by aggressively investing in infrastructure, externalizing TPU sales, and integrating highly competitive AI models. Additionally, their vertically integrated TPU stack gives them the lowest cost of goods sold per token in the industry, positioning them to dominate both consumer and enterprise markets.
“The idea that these companies are all going to come crashing down because they spent too much developing large language models is a fantasy.”
Alphabet is protected from the AI bubble bursting due to its giant cash reserves and lucrative core operations, which easily fund its ongoing multi-billion dollar AI investments. Panic over the company crashing due to excessive spending on large language models is unwarranted.
“I'm not going to say, 'Hey, I'm not going to own Google because I'm worried about the EU.'... To me, it's more I'm going to own Google and I'm going to own the EU companies.”
While susceptible to European digital sovereignty regulations, Google's services are simply too deeply entrenched and important to be fully displaced. The company has a long history of successfully navigating EU regulations since 2004.